Any day now

Our baby is due on Sunday.  As the doctor informed us, that means he could arrive at any time between now and three weeks from now.  Last week we asked the nurse if she could give us odds.  Maybe a nice probability distribution.  What should we expect in a totally normal pregnancy?  But she insisted that there was no way to know (which makes you wonder why they bother doing the exams in the first place.)  Disappointed, we turned to another source of information: gambling.

David’s lab has a pool going about when the baby will show up.  25 people entered and their guesses form a lovely Gaussian distribution centered two days after the due date:

Since this is Price-is-Right rules we figure that means the most likely date is three days after.  Also, you’ll notice that no one went with the due date itself.  (Although my mom and my sister have informally entered bets on that day.)

On the other hand, a hurricane is supposed to hit Boston late Friday.  So that’s probably when he’ll decide to show up.